How do you overcome results oriented thinking from a client?

2017-03-20 23:29:38

I am working with a client on a special project that I am going to obfuscate in this question. Basically, I'm trying to overcome some short-term, results-oriented thinking from my client.

Let's say you have a model to forecast the performance of a racehorse. Your model tells your client to sell racehorse X because the probability of its performance is low (<10%). The horse is sold and said racehorse goes on to win 3 races. Your client says, "See, we should have never let go of that racehorse! The model is wrong!"

As data scientist we can understand that anomalies happen and that this horse may have also lost some races - we were just on the wrong side of probability this time. But how do you overcome those objections with the client? How do you turn short-term thinking into a long-term outlook of predictive modeling?